THE EDSEL FACTOR

The most obvious can sometimes
be completely overlooked. There
are hard facts that support the
fact that Lithium will become
unavailable for the production
of Lithium Ion batteries for the
EV's and Hybrid's of the future or
the present

The folly of dependance on LIthium
ion batteries for a power storage
source or as a bridge technology
until a more enduring technology
is developed is not a secret.
Until Fuel cell Batteries are in
production or an alternate source
is developed the EV market may
collapse.

This adds fuel to the theory that a
giant auto maker may face another
crisis. This mega auto producer
may be marching towards it's
decline as a world market leader.

There are great reserves of the heavy
metal Lithium in sea water but the
enormous cost of extracting it is
off the charts. There is no evidence
that this reserve will ever be utilized.

There is even less evidence that
the existing Lithium mines in
South America can deliver the goods
in less than 20 years. The reserves are
there but the infrastructure is not.
There is a complete absence of an
infrastructure central to these mines
and the political climate is less than
friendly for foreign capital.
Follow this link wtahil@meridian-int-res-com.
to get some facts from Meridian International
Research from a well researched paper
on Lithium reserves. This fact filled article
is worth reading if you are planing to buy
an EV in the future. My advice would be to
wait about 20 years unless you have an
excess of expendable income.

THE PAPER BY MR.WILLAM TAHILL
AT MERIDIAN INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
IS SEEMINGLY A FRANK REPORT ON
THE AVAILABILITY NOW AND
IN THE FUTURE FOR LITHIUM. BELIEVABLE
OR NOT IT IS A FACT FILLED REPORT THAT
EVERYONE SHOULD CONSIDER READING.

THE TROUBLE WITH LITHIUM
Implications of Future PHEV for Lithium Demand

FROM MERIDIAN INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
BY William

wtahil@meridian-int-res-com.

The "Prius Edsel factor" part one

Prius is planing a switch from Nicad

battery to the highly touted lithium ion

battery. This will likely give the Prius a

place in auto history as infamous as the

Ford Edsel. The ion battery will disappear

from the market in less than 15 years.

Lithium mines are already having trouble

keeping up with the cell phone and laptop

computer demand. There will be zero

reserves of lithium within 12 to 15 years.

Hybrids will need to find an option to the

lithium ion battery.

Switching to the Ion battery will put the

Prius in a class of its own. The process

of adapting your Prius to an battery

powered ion plug in will cost you around

$12000.00 minus a tax break of an estimated

$4000.00 Not an economical option.

The battery problem might just price the

Prius out of the market for working stiffs

who make less than $200,000.00 a year.

Most of the over 10,000. prius owners will

need to replace their nicad batteries in

about 8 years. Presently he cost is around

$3000.00. The projected cost in 8 years

will likely exceed $6000.00 but supply will

be nill. They will need to find another

option to keep their Toyota humming along

at lightning speeds.

The Chinese are eating nickel

as if it were rice. Nickel is used to

produce stainless steel and China leads

in export and domestic production of

stainless steel. The cost of nickel is

expected to make a 500% cost leap in

less than 5 years. Reserves of nickel in

the world market are dangerously low.

Nicad batteries are already priced out

of the market. That eliminates the nicad

and switching to Ion batteries will result

in a bigger hit to Toyota than any of the

damaging recalls presently undermining

faith in the reliability of all Toyotas. The

option for a change to Ion batteries for

Hybirds to ion plug ins is like selling snake

oil to cure diabetics. Cost factors will not

be a problem but supply will. The raw

material, lithium, will not be available

since there are no producing

mines. Estimates are that it would take

at least ten years to develop the

infrastructure to allow production in

the two existing mines in South America.

Presently the worlds production ,which

is dwindling to nothing, is used to make

the wonderful exploding ion batteries

used in notebooks and cell phones.

You might recall the press bites on

flaming notebooks, Ion batteries are

prone to overheating a fault that is far

worse than "sudden acceleration".

Look for press bites in the future on

flaming or exploding Priuses. There

will be an acute shortage of Ion batteries

and the cost will be porhibitive for most

Prius owners other than Steve Jobs or

Bill Gates who both drive a Prius on

ocassion.

Again Toyota moves toward another

drop in sales when the Public realizes

that the Prius will be virtually obsolete

in less than ten years. Sooner if you were

a"pioneer" and need to change your

batteries sooner.

The annual sales volume of the Prius is

now exceeding 100,000 units. Which

proves that the gullible world market will

buy snake oil if you beat a drum hard

enough and package your product

attractively. Again "the Edsel Factor".

Consumers are simply uniformed by the

lack of truth and blinded by media hype.

Are there other options for this disaster

that are practical? The simple answer is

no. The only future option that might be

practical are fuel cells but development

of this clean technology will take at least

another 10 years. Production will probably

take another 5 years to commence. This

will allow time for the public to become

thourougly disillusioned with electric

power by any means. The Japanese

auto industry may be facing the same fate

experienced by the auto industry in the United

States, Death from arrogance, greed and

poor management. Even giants like Godzilla

can be reduced to ashes when they step into

a volcanic crater. Possibly there might be a

miraculous recovery of the auto industry in

the U.S. Henry Ford would be proud.

Look for part two in this blog "The Lithum

dictum".