WILL THE COST OF WAR RESULT IN PEACE ?

The year is 1989, December 20Th and Panama is
invaded by formidable U.S. force that included
27,684 troops and over 300 aircraft. Soundly
defeating the 46,000 Panamanian Defense Force.
Officially 200 Panamanian civilians died in the
conflict, many say that more like 2000 died due
to the brutal use of firepower in populated areas.
"JUST CAUSE" was justified by the U.S. as
the defense of human rights in Panama and
combating drug trafficking. The end result
was to guarantee the continued safe use of
the Panama Canal and the capture of the corrupt
president of Panama, Manuel Noriega and his
subsequent trial and imprisonment . He was
wanted for drug trafficking in the U.S. after years
of U.S. support that allowed his existence.

The Year is 2010 and the United States has landed
the 4Th fleet in Costa Rica. The President is
not wanted for Drug trafficking. This invasion is by
invitation of President Chihuahua and the Costa
Rica ruling body politic. The reason , combating
drug trafficking and to perform acts of mercy
and peace. Sound familiar ?

Most Central American countries have served as a
de facto pipeline for drugs like marijuana, cocaine,
and now the new "chemically" concocted drugs
to the U.S. and Europe. They have notoriously
turned the other cheek and allowed the transport
and some cases raw materials for the drug cartels.
No "criminal acts",involved only a breakdown of
responsibility and morality. The new apple in the
garden of Eden in this decade is greed and power.
Only Nicaragua can truly be excluded in this
group of facilitators.

However the invasion will probably be short lived
since most of the fleet will depart soon possibly parking
offshore in Venezuelan waters in a show of force. This
is in support of Colombia who is the supplier of
most of the worlds cocaine and 80% of the concrete
used in Panama. The media is now "predicting" at the
least an eminent border war between Colombia
and Venezuela.

The economic cost of an "out of control war" in South
America is almost an impossibility at this point. After all
the trade between Colombia and Venezuela is now
calculated to be $5 billion yearly. The U.S. has poured
over $5 billion in U.S. aid into Colombia and has infused
U.S. advisers throughout their huge military complex .
Venezuela has substantial oil reserves and supplies almost
20% of oil used in the U.S. Again the corporations
rule not the politicos.

An appetite for armed conflict does not exist in this climate.
Venezuela's military looks anemic when compared to
the U.S. backed Colombian military. Unless Chavez initiates
a Don Quixote attack on the 4Th fleet we will not see armed
conflict between the two (three?) nations. The poor in both
Venezuela and Colombia will remain poor and the de facto
trade and transport of Drugs will continue to grow. Ditto
Panama.

However the Drug cartels should beware since the seeds
for the legalization of drugs have been planted in the U.S.
This might herald the beginning of the end of free flowing
money to the criminal right. Already huge investments
are being made in real estate and facilities for the extensive
production of Marijuana in the state of California. If A new
industry is born leading the way to legalization of drugs.
Capitalism will win and the drug cartels will loose.

NATION BUILDING IN A TIME OF RECESSION

A CATCH 22 TYPE SCENARIO IS GOING
ON IN PARADISE. ON JULY 2ND THE
COST RICA CONGRESS AUTHORIZED A
FLOTILLA OF 46 US VESSELS TO ENTER
THIS SMALL PARADISE.(A MINIMAL
FORCE OF 113,000 PERSONNEL IS THE
REQUIRED PERSONNEL TO MAKE THIS FLEET
FUNCTIONAL) THE MAXIMUM PERSONAL
NEEDED COULD BE AS MUCH AS 200,000.
THE OUTSTANDING FEATURE OF THIS
FLOTILLA IS THE 7000 BATTLE READY
MARINES WHO WILL BE ALLOWED ON
SHORE IN FULL DRAG. IN ADDITION
THERE ARE 200 HELICOPTERS AND
WARPLANES STORED ON BOARD THE
SHIPS. THE FLOTILLA INCLUDES SOME
DEADLY SUBMARINE KILLER SHIPS TO
HUNT DOWN THE PESKY LITTLE NARCO
SUBS WHICH ARE SELDOM IN COSTA
RICAN WATERS. THIS WOULD LEAD ONE
TO BELIEVE THAT THE FLEET IS NOT JUST
THERE FOR HUMANITARIAN MISSIONS.
BUT WAIT, COSTA RICA HAS MORE THAN
LESS DIVORCED VENEZUELA AS A
GUARDIAN ANGEL. MAYBE THE FOURTH
FLEET IS THE NEW ANGEL IN THE WATER.
IN THE PAST THE FLEET FUNCTIONED AS
A HAMMER TO MAINTAIN "TRANQUILITY"
AND "STABILITY" IN LATIN AMERICA.
THE COAST GUARD ADMIRAL WHO COMMANDS
THE FLEET SAYS THEY ARE THERE FOR
"ANTI-NARCOTICS OPERATIONS AND
HUMANITARIAN MISSIONS UNTIL
DECEMBER. YEP THAT'S RIGHT, A COAST
GUARD ADMIRAL,WHICH MUST TICK OFF
A LOT OF NAVY ADMIRALS SINCE THE
FOURTH IS HARDLY A FLEET THAT GUARDS
PORTS, BRIDGES OR STANDS GUARD
OVER FAR AWAY COASTAL WATERS.
THE FOURTH WAS DESIGNED FOR THE
DESTRUCTION OF NATIONS. THE FIRE
POWER OF THE FLEET GIVES MACHISMO
TO THE "WAR ON DRUGS" SINCE IT IS LIKE
KILLING A SINGLE FLY WITH A SHOTGUN.
EXPECT SOME DRAMATIC RESULTS. ARE
THE PEOPLE OF COSTA RICA UPSET ? THEY
MOST CERTAINLY ARE. POLITICIANS FROM
ACCION CIUDADANA (PAC), THE UNIDAD
SOCIAL CRISTIANA (PUSC) AND THE FRENTE
APLIO (FA) SAYS THIS IS MORE FORCE
THAN YOU NEED FOR A PETITE WAR ON
DRUGS, SINCE COSTA RICA HAS LESS OF
A DRUG PROBLEM THAN MOST CENTRAL
AMERICAN COUNTRIES. THEY HAVE A POINT.

COSTA RICA HAS NOT HAD A STANDING
ARMY FOR 60 YEARS WHEN THE LARGEST
MILITARY FACILITY WAS HANDED OVER
TO THE MINISTER OF EDUCATION WHO
CONVERTED IT INTO A SCHOOL. THE
ARMY WAS DISBANDED AND THE FUNDS
USED TO SUPPORT EDUCATION AND
WELFARE PROGRAMS LIKE SOCIAL
SECURITY

PRESIDENT LAURA CHINCHILLA HAS
DENIED THAT A MILITARIZED FIGHT ON
DRUGS IS IN THE WORKS. THE PRESS
BLACKOUT BY THE WHITE HOUSE HAS
BEEN EFFECTIVE AND I DOUBT IF ANYONE
WILL NOTICE ANYTHING UNTIL THE
MARINES START SHOWING UP IN FULL
COMBAT DRAG AT THE LOCAL PUBS. THIS
INVASION OF PRIVACY MIGHT POSSIBLY
UPSET SOME COSTA RICANS. ?WHY NOT?

MANY WILL SUGGEST THEY QUICKLY SAIL
BACK TO MEXICO WHERE THIS KIND
OF FIRE-POWER AND THE MARINES
MIGHT BE PUT TO USE. IF THERE IS A
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS IN COSTA RICA
IT IS A VIRTUAL ONE CREATED BY THE
U.S. A MAJOR CRISIS IS ONLY A FEW
CLICKS AWAY FROM THE HOME OF THE
4TH. THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ONLY A
FEW HOURS SAILING FROM THEIR HOME
BASE. I ASSUME THEY HAVE SOME GPS
DEVICES ABOARD TO FIND THEIR WAY
BACK THERE TO ATTEND TO A MAJOR
CRISIS RIGHT NEXT DOOR IN THE U.S.

THEY PROBABLY NEED SOME OF THAT
GOVERNMENT MONOPOLY GAS
RESERVES STORED IN COSTA RICA
THAT MOST CITIZENS THERE CAN NOT
POSSIBLY AFFORD. MY PREDICTION IS
THE FLEET WILL SAIL ON TO VENEZUELA
TO DO THE TANGO WITH CHAVEZ.
HOWEVER SINCE THEY ARE THERE
THEY MIGHT CONSIDER ASSISTING IN
THE REPAIR OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE
THAT IS FAST DECOMPOSING SINCE
BUDGET CUTS AND THE WORLDWIDE
RECESSION HAVE PUT THE COSTA RICA
INFRASTRUCTURE AND ECONOMY IN A
SAD STATE OF REPAIR. LOOKS STRANGE
FROM WHATEVER ANGLE YOU LOOK AT
IT. THERE IS NO EARTHLY OR HEAVENLY
REASON FOR THE 4TH TO BE IN COSTA
RICA UNDER THE GUISE OF A COAST
GUARD HUMANITARIAN FLEET.

LOOKING FOR REAL CLUES IS NOT
DIFFICULT SINCE AN ENORMOUS
MILITARY BUILDUP OF U.S. ADVISERS
AND EQUIPMENT IS UNDERWAY IN
BOLIVIA. A HUGE BASE HAS BEEN
CONSTRUCTED ON THE FRONTIER
OF BOLIVIA/VENEZUELA WHERE YOU
CAN PROBABLY A THROWN ROCK
THAT WILL BOUNCE OFF THE HELMET
OF A VENEZUELAN SOLDIER WHO IS
WAITING THERE FOR THE INVASION OF
THE WELL FINANCED BOLIVIAN ARMY
INTO HIS HOME COUNTRY. SINCE THE
2008 REACTIVATION OF THE 4TH FLEET
THINGS HAVE BEEN TOUCHY. PUT IN
MOTHBALLS IN 1950, THE PURPOSE
OF THIS FLEET HAS ALWAYS BEEN TO
DEFEND U.S. INTERESTS IN THE LATIN
AMERICAN REGION. IT IS NOW PERCEIVED
AS A DIRECT SUPPORT TO BOLIVIA AND
TO INTIMIDATE VENEZUELA. IT IS ALSO
SEEN BY MOST LATIN COUNTRIES
AS A MEANS OF INTIMIDATION AND A U.S.
DE-STABILIZATION TOOL IN LATIN AMERICA.
ONE BASE IN THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA
BORDERING THE VENEZUELAN STATE
OF ZULIA HAS UP TO 800 TROOPS AND
AN UNDETERMINED NUMBER OF U.S.
ADVISERS.

A HUGE AIR BASE ON THE BORDER,
CONSTRUCTED WITH U.S. AID , HAS
OVER 600 COMBAT READY AIRCRAFT
ON ALERT. THIS INCLUDES A VARIETY
OF FIGHTER JETS, 111 TRAINER T-3
WITH U.S. ADVISERS IN THE BACK
SEAT AND A VARIETY OF 115 ATTACK
CHOPPERS. THEY ALSO HAVE AN
UNDETERMINED NUMBER OF PRIVATE
MILITARY CONTRACTORS ON THE SCENE.
TWO OTHER ALMOST IDENTICAL BASES
HAVE BEEN BUILT AND EQUIPPED WITH
THE SAME STRENGTH. MY PREDICTION
IS THAT BOLIVIA WILL PROD CHAVEZ
UNTIL THERE IS AN OPEN WAR. NO
NEED TO WORRY COSTA RICA THE 4TH
FLEET HAS BIGGER FISH TO FRY.

IT IS CALLED NATION BUILDING.